Iran and North Korea

Iran

The elections are an epochal moment in Middle Eastern history, and something I'll be following closely.

North Korea

The nuclear weaponization tests and threats? All non-events-- kabuki theatre orchestrated from Beijing. If there was a genuine threat to South Korea and Japan, and if war should break out, a million refugees would head for China.

North Korea's Atomic Motivations

There are five ways of attacking with fire. The first is to burn soldiers in their camp; the second is to burn stores; the third is to burn baggage trains; the fourth is to burn arsenals and magazines; the fifth is to hurl dropping fire amongst the enemy.

Sun Tzu

North Korea's motivation in rattling the nuclear saber is to achieve ultimately unification with South Korea. They are playing a long game, and consistent with Sun Tzu's Art of War, North Korea wants to achieve its goals through guile and without bloodshed. "Therefore one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful. " While China's historic motivation has been to maintain a buffer state between itself and the west, it appears that China's ability to control North Korea is dangerously waning.

On April 5, 2009, North Korea tested the Taepodong-2 Rocket again and it was successfully launched. However, even if it was a satellite rocket test, the test is still violates the UN Security Council's decision. Because Taepodon-2's first stage engine is same with "Musudan (Nodong-B)" [31], North Korea claims they have demonstrated Musdan Mobile 4000 km MRBM's reliability.

This means North Korea may be able to develop/deploy several hundreds mobile ICBM -- which can survive from first strike by US ICBM-like DF-31/RT-2UTTH Topol M-- within 7–10 years. (The Soviet Union deployed 3000 km R27U in 1971 and deployed next model 9100 km R29D in 1978.) [32]

Japan Ministry of Defense's analyst Takesada points out that North Korea's desire of unification is similar to North Vietnam, and warns of the possibility of North Korea's compulsory merge of South Korea by threats of nuclear weapons, taking advantage of any US possible decrease in military presence from South Korea, after North Korea deploy few hundreds Mobile ICBM aimed at the US. [33]

North Korea Launches Rocket

(CNN) North Korea has launched a long-range rocket, U.S. and South Korean officials confirmed to CNN on Sunday.

The payload of the rocket remains unclear. North Korea has said the rocket was to carry a satellite into space, but the United States, South Korea and other nations fear it could be a missile with a warhead attached.

A senior Obama administration official in Washington confirmed that the rocked did clear Japan.

The rocket was launched at about 11:30 a.m. Sunday (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday).

Here are some of my observations going back to October, 2006.

North Korea Plans Atomic Test

Biden to North Korea: We Will Annihilate You

North Korea Tests Atomic Bomb

What the US Should Do About North Korea

Inviting Kim to Disneyland