Israel and Hamas: Cutting the Gordian Knot

The Gordian knot refers metaphorically to a bold stroke that solves an intractable problem. In the last two weeks, almost 1,000 people have died in the war that Israel has waged on Hamas in response to terrorism. Most of those who have died were Palestinian and most of them civilians.

Is there anything that can cut the Gordian knot in the conflict in the Middle East? There was a time when most people assumed that the tensions in Ireland, South Africa, and in Viet Nam were problems without solutions. But all human problems have a life-span, although sometimes the time frame is generations. Eventually, institutions develop that mitigate the ancient furies and memories. But equally inevitably institutions fragment and collapse as identity politicans coalese around new grievances.

It seems to me a lasting solution will probably involve some of these elements.

1. A recognition that lex talonis -- tribalistic habits of revenge-- is no solution, where it be an eye for an eye or your family and all your relatives for an eye. This recognition has nothing to do with morality, despite the fact that the land of Israel was the greenhouse for three major religions. It will come out of necessity, a pragmatic recognition that there are limits to revenge, as they breed resentment and create the conditions for tougher opponents. This was one of the rueful epiphanies to the Nazi leadership as they conducted their Final Solution. In Israel's case, there is also the demographic inevitability and reality-- that Palestinians are having more children than Israelis.

2. A recognition that the West cannot be an honest broker in this dispute. Mediation will most likely have to come through nations that have no dog in the fight, such as the People's Republic of China or Africa. But why should such countries get involved? I don't have a good answer to that, other than eventually they may see it is in their national economic and security interest to get involved. The United States' unofficial alliance with Israel and boots on the ground in two Islamic countries takes away its credability to play a meaningful role in a resolution to this problem.

3. Resettlement, perhaps in the Middle East or perhaps even to Muslim South Asia. The Isreali state was founded by displaced persons from Europe fleeing the fascist persecution. I doubt that this solution is acceptable to anyone, but I include for consideration.

4. A one nation solution. A Palestiniean state. But I don't see how this will address the underlying tensions between two different cultures with such a legacy of hatred.

5. A two-nation solution. Gaza is one nation and the West Bank is another nation. Even more unlikely a solution. From the Palestinian's point of view, this would create a divide and conquer hegemony from Israel.

6. Integration with neigboring countries. Gaza to Egypt and the West Bank to Jordan. Not a solution, in my view. Neither countries would like a radicalized, poor beachhead into their own country.

7. Federalism with Israel. Integration into Israel with allowance for the distinct culture represented by the Palestinians. Israel will reject this idea for the same reason that Jordan and Egypt would reject integration into their countries.

8. Modus vivendi in combination with a United Nations force with enough power to keep the peace while efforts are made to insitutionalize Israeli and Palistinean desires for security and peace. This gets into issues of Israeli sovereignty. However, I think this is probably the most workable solution, although it is far from a perfect one.

Your solutions are simplistic and wishy washy. Israel is an independent state.

Perhaps. But what is the alternative? A permanent state of war? A final solution? Without doubt, both options appeal to many people who will die in Israel in the coming days.

Even if this escalates into Armagedon, what then-- what about Armagedon plus one year?

As I mentioned in my post, Israel is on the wrong side of the demographic time bomb, and sooner or later there must be some kind of accomodation as new Islamist terrorists are getting born every day on Israel's soil, one of whom may someday acquire the means for Israel's destruction. And, the most realistic scenerio is an accomodation that eventually favors a radically anti-democratic, anti-secular, anti-Western Islamic state within the boundaries of Israel. That is the shape of things as they will be, if the present trends continue, I believe. As a Zionist, it isn't what I want. Bt it is what will be, unless there is some kind of a overaching, permanent solution.

As a tactical question, I'm willing to concede that Israel had no choice but to move against Hamas in Gaza. As a strategic question, this may indeed prove to be a pyrrhic victory for Israel. Israel may have just planted the seeds of its own destruction. I see no leaders with the stature to effect change between Israel and Hamas, and there is ample incentive by fanatics on both sides to keep the turmoil going indefinitely.

War in this case isn't the failure of Middle Eastern politics and dipomacy. It is the flower of Middle Eastern politics and diplomacy. But that is true only in the tactical sense, as war, like some kind of Frankenstein monster, eventually will turn on its master. It does so because war eventually weakens the state and erodes trends towards democracy and secularism. It also randomizes outcomes and misallocates and destroys resources, including, obviously, people. But, presently, the short-term view is that the rewards for war by both sides outweighs the costs of war. So war must continue.

What you are seeing right now in my opinion is the equivalent of the Tet offensive-- a military victory for Israel but also a propoganda defeat as well, which might be much more significant and a turning point in the history of the life of Israel as a sovereign nation.

Violence begets violence, and though the Middle East the violence that Israel is inflicting against school children in Gaza is beamed into the TV sets of countless living rooms radicalizing yet another generation. But few people-- including folks like you-- have the inclination, will, imagination, or authority to break the cycle of bloodshed that will cause yet more bloodshed to little Jewish boys and girls to the hundreth generation.

I believe that Isael is making two assumptions that predicates its belligerance. 1. The the United States will continue its de facto military alliance with Israel; and 2. The Israel can dominate with its military capability any combination of enemies that may align against it at any given time. As to point one I think the intention is there, but there are other forces that may prevent the United States from rescuing Israel in its moment of peril. As to point two, the increasing sophistication of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons will render that assumption invalid. I wouldn't bet the fate of Israel on either of those assumptions.

A solution will only reveal itself when the pain of not having a solution becomes too great for Zion. We're not at the point yet. But one day the Israelis will clamor that the rest of the world do something to preserve their existence and identity.

That time will come. Guaranteed.

A real middle east peace plan?

1) Israel takes over the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip.

2) Egypt gives the Sinai Penisula to the UN. UN sets up Sinai Mandate to govern Sinai Penisula.

3) So-called "Palestinians" moved from West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip to Sinai.

4) Saudi Arabia pays $500 billion to turn Sinai into a productive area.

5) Israel builds a massive wall along their border with Sinai and Lebanon. Think "Great Wall of China".

6) On other side of wall into Sinai and Lebanon is a 2 mile wide DMZ patroled by a third party with no stake in what happens in the middle east. (Think Chinese troops)

7) Vatican takes control of Holy Places in Jerusalem with guarentee that all Holy Places with be open to all pilgrims regardless of religion.

8) Israel explicitly states they will try to acquire no more territory in the Middle East. This pledge is invalidated by any attack by the Arab Countries on Israel.

There you have it, Middle East Peace in 8 steps.

I like your plan. It makes sense when you look at the vastness of Saudi Arabia in comparison to the small area of land that people are fighting for. I could see a UN mandate carved out of the coast of Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea many times larger than Gaza and the West Bank.

The way I would approach it as follows.

1. In for a dime, in for a dollar. If I were the Israelis, I would use this opportunity to eradicate root and branch all terrorists and supporting institutions throughout Gaza, Israel proper, and the West Bank, far more aggressively than they are doing now, irrespective of world public opinion, using basically the British suppression of the communists in Malaya in the early 1950s, followed by ...

2. Your plan, plus assurances of fair treatment and democratic representation to minority segments, with incentives for minorities to migrate.

But I see no leaders interesting in this kind of pragmatic thinking. They just want to keep waving the bloody flag while their kids die year after year forever.