Place Your Bets: Intrade Political Predictions

The voice of the markets is the voice of God. Here is what contract buyers and sellers saying who will be the eventual presidential nominees. They theory is that like the stock market futures these numbers reflect the sum total of all information from the most whimsical guesses to to the most informed number-crunching by real people using real money.

http://www.intrade.com/


Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 60 percent
Barack Obama to be Democratic Prsidential Nominee in 2008 38 percent

John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 56 percent
Rudy Guiliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 8 percent

You can cross check by comparing the bets of political gamblers who do much of the same thing. However, as in a horse race, the favorite doesn't always win.

http://odds.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/