The Retreat of Conventional Wisdom

This has been a bad day for conventional wisdom.

Contrary to punditry by establishment talking heads, it now appears that Obama and Huckabee are the front runners in Iowa, Iran had halted its nuclear weaponry program years ago, Imus is back on the radio, and the voters of Venezuela have repudiated Hugo Chavez.

This bring up an axiom of prophacy, whether it is stock market forcasting, weather forcasting, or political forecasting . The worst possible way to predict the future is to project from the past. Events have a way of twisting and forking unexpectedly, no doubt due to the cussedness of human nature.