My Ship Has Come In! Or Not.
Got this e-mail today ...
On Wed Jul 4 7:57 , UK NATIONAL LOTTERY -->sent:-->
You have just won £552,000 pounds sterling.
For more information, contact our Lottery fiduciary Agent.
Name;Mr petterson walker
E-mail Address: claims_petterson2007@yahoo.com
Sir. Richard Lloyds
online co ordinator
This e-mail probably originated from Nigeria and was sent to 3.7 million of his closest friends. I wouldn't be surprised if you got it as well.
My view on the lottery is that it is fundamentally a regressive tax on stupidity. I think it is good social policy to tax stupid people, and the lottery will do just that. When you look at the odds of winning, say a super-powerball lottery at 1:10,700,000, the best and only way to interpret it is to view the odds correctly as 0:10,700,000. Even allowing yourself a remote possibility for success in my view puts you on a dangerous slope perhaps not to poverty but to the loss of your money that could be used for something that gives you more for your expenditures than a bunch of worthless paper slips.
I got innoculated against gambling when I was just out of college and unemployed where I encountered a game of three card monte. It seemed so simple, so obvious at the time, that the black card was the right card. With new found wisdom, I discerned that I couldn't beat the house--in this case-- a swarthy low set gentleman and his equally stocky partner with a tattoo of a snake on his arm. I was taken for ten bucks, but it was money well spent, as I've never had any interest in gambling since.
It is impossible for someone to beat the house in cases where pure luck is involved, over time, as in the lottery or the well-named one-armed bandit. In this case, you are competing against the house, and the house has calibrated the play so that over time they must win. In the case of some card games, where specialized ability is involved, it's possible in rare circumstances to come ahead-- but not so much as it's something that I want to spend my time on. But, as in the stock market and commodities, most people overestimate their ability and personality so that inevitably they lose decisively. It's one thing to beat a horse race, but quite another to beat the horse races.
I'm not sure what the angle of the person is who sent the e-mail, but I'm sure it's a scam. It most likely involves a process of ingratiation, followed by an appeal for a good will deposit, followed by a ten percent processing fee, followed by nothing.
The only way to beat the house in this case is to not even open its door in the first place.
On Wed Jul 4 7:57 , UK NATIONAL LOTTERY -->sent:-->
You have just won £552,000 pounds sterling.
For more information, contact our Lottery fiduciary Agent.
Name;Mr petterson walker
E-mail Address: claims_petterson2007@yahoo.com
Sir. Richard Lloyds
online co ordinator
This e-mail probably originated from Nigeria and was sent to 3.7 million of his closest friends. I wouldn't be surprised if you got it as well.
My view on the lottery is that it is fundamentally a regressive tax on stupidity. I think it is good social policy to tax stupid people, and the lottery will do just that. When you look at the odds of winning, say a super-powerball lottery at 1:10,700,000, the best and only way to interpret it is to view the odds correctly as 0:10,700,000. Even allowing yourself a remote possibility for success in my view puts you on a dangerous slope perhaps not to poverty but to the loss of your money that could be used for something that gives you more for your expenditures than a bunch of worthless paper slips.
I got innoculated against gambling when I was just out of college and unemployed where I encountered a game of three card monte. It seemed so simple, so obvious at the time, that the black card was the right card. With new found wisdom, I discerned that I couldn't beat the house--in this case-- a swarthy low set gentleman and his equally stocky partner with a tattoo of a snake on his arm. I was taken for ten bucks, but it was money well spent, as I've never had any interest in gambling since.
It is impossible for someone to beat the house in cases where pure luck is involved, over time, as in the lottery or the well-named one-armed bandit. In this case, you are competing against the house, and the house has calibrated the play so that over time they must win. In the case of some card games, where specialized ability is involved, it's possible in rare circumstances to come ahead-- but not so much as it's something that I want to spend my time on. But, as in the stock market and commodities, most people overestimate their ability and personality so that inevitably they lose decisively. It's one thing to beat a horse race, but quite another to beat the horse races.
I'm not sure what the angle of the person is who sent the e-mail, but I'm sure it's a scam. It most likely involves a process of ingratiation, followed by an appeal for a good will deposit, followed by a ten percent processing fee, followed by nothing.
The only way to beat the house in this case is to not even open its door in the first place.
Labels: scams
posted by My Mall and News at
8:57 PM
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